Election Not As Close as Reported
I have been vascilating between 301 and 311 electoral votes for Bush over the past 3 weeks, with the on-again, off-again state being Minnesota (10 electoral votes). And tonight I run across this article...from Britain of all places. The excerpts I have posted echo each and every reason I have come to this conclusion (301 and not even close).
If Bush Goes, I Go
Most presidential elections aren’t close and, for all the talk of the 50/50 nation, it’s not quite that even a divide: in the 2002 House races, the Republicans took 53.4 per cent, the Democrats 46.6 per cent. A small sliver of voters concluded that, though we live in interesting times, the Dems have nothing interesting to say and parked their votes elsewhere. The polls didn’t pick up that trend until the results started coming in on election night…
…The question now is whether the electorate is closer to the 2002 or the 2000 model. Andrew Sullivan and the other moulting hawks claim that, whatever his inner agonising, a President Kerry will have no choice but to fight the war on terror as robustly — if more smartly and multilaterally — than Bush. This rather overlooks the fact that the strongest force in global affairs is inertia. It seems most probable that, underneath the newly restored polite veneer of international relations, everyone’s attention will wander and the league of nuclear rogue states will expand and so will the list of freelance players in their Rolodexes; and, while John’s hosting Jacques at some summit to celebrate the new Franco–American entente, something will happen and we’ll have to learn the lessons of 9/11 all over again.
So, taking a flyer on a guy who’s spent 30 years siding with the Vietcong, the Soviets, the Sandinistas, the Commies in Grenada and — vis-à-vis Kuwait in 1990 — Saddam Hussein? No thanks.
My sense is that the 2002 model is still operative, and that the Democrats and the media, talking to each other in their mutually self-deluding cocoon, have overplayed the Bush-bashing. Next Tuesday the President will win the states he won last time, plus Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Maine’s Second Congressional District to put him up to 301 electoral votes. Minnesota? Why not? Nudge him up to 311 electoral votes. Oh, and what the hell, give him Hawaii: that’s 315. The Republicans will make a net gain of two seats in the Senate, one of which will bring with it the scalp of the Democrats’ leader, Tom Daschle. Despite distancing himself from Kerry and running ads showing him and Bush embracing, Daschle’s floundering in South Dakota, and his lugubrious mien will be even more lugubriouser within the week. Look for a handful of Republican House gains, too. And Democrats tearing their hair out — or John Kerry’s and John Edwards’s hair, if they can penetrate the styling gel.
The above prediction needs to be able to withstand Democrat fraud, which I’m nervous about. If Tuesday goes off as smoothly as the Afghan election, we’ll be very lucky.
I feel a sense of calm now (after a very anxious few weeks) hearing my own reasoning duplicated by the likes of a Mark Styne.
Tuesday is Judgement Day. Not for Bush. Not for Kerry. But for this democratically elected republican form of government.