Coming Protests in Beirut: Another Tiananmen Square, Hizballah/Jihad Style?
Bill Roggio at the fourth rail has written an excellent and supporting-link heavy analysis of Hizballah's so-called 'recent decision' to side with Syria. If you are following the Cedar Revolution in Lebanon, this should be required reading for the day. If you aren't following the Cedar Revolution, then you got here by mistake and should start now.
the fourth rail's analysis is excellent and I only have this consideration to add:
As noted at the fourth rail, Hizballah is playing a losing hand by siding with Syria. But the question that begs to be answered is: Was there really any choice Hizballah was seriously considering? Any serious debate within the leadership of Hizballah is hard to imagine, as their fortunes have been tightly bound to the tacit support from and for both Syria and Iran.
Taking this into account, Hizballah's public call for 'peaceful' demonstrations to counter the democracy- and independence-seeking opposition rallies heightens the fears (at least from this observer) that they will not be peaceful counter-demonstrations at all. Of course they publicly call for peaceful demonstrations, but one would be prudent to speculate that privately, the goons are being gathered.
Could the 24/7 unarmed pro-independence demonstrations be facing a Tiananmen Square-like crushing at the hands of armed Hizballah terrorists? The deomonstrators have been at the heart of Beruit for days nearly around the clock, and it is worthy of note that the Hizballah 'peaceful' counter-demonstrations are set to occur mere blocks away.
Also, look for the Hizballah coordination with and participation of Syrian agents in disruption and violence as well.
If this all proves to be, the Hizballah aim is surely to be able to allow Syria & Baby Assad to say, "See? If we pull out now, it will be chaos and civil war all over again. We just can't abandon the people of Lebanon like that."
The Word Unheard would also suggest that this plan is likely the sole reason for Hizballah giving the appearance of internal debate and lack of full support for Syria. To provide some sort of plausible deniability in the aftermath and on both sides, Syrian and Hizballah.
Tuesday could be a day to watch closely.
There are more than a few Marines who remember October 23, 1983 very, very well. To be sure, there are feelings of unfinished business that have lingered for more than twenty years and plenty of Marines willing to close the deal. For them, it's personal.
NOTE: As Tuesday unfolds, there are Lebanese Blogs to watch today. A Montage:
The Word Unheard: Lebanon Today From Lebanese Bloggers...Including a LIVE Blogger